“For everything, there is a season…”
We all know, or at least sense, that life unfolds in patterns and seasons…
- birth, growth, death
- spring, summer, fall, winter
- dawn, day, dusk, night
As chaotic and random life can be at times, there is some predictability.
Healthcare is no exception…
While demand for healthcare never disappears, it tends to fluctuate in somewhat predictable patterns throughout the year.
For small NP owned practices, understanding these patterns can be the difference between struggling to keep the doors open and operating with a sense of control and stability.
Seasonal patterns repeat, are real, and predictable. And with a bit of planning, you can anticipate and leverage them to grow your practice.
Seasonal Patterns in Healthcare
Healthcare isn’t delivered evenly across the calendar. Instead, it follows patterns tied to:
- The weather
- Human behavior
- The economy
- Insurance rules
- Public health concerns
Flu Season
One of the most predictable patterns is the fall and winter surge in respiratory illnesses.
Every year, cases of influenza, COVID-19, RSV, bronchitis, and pneumonia increase as winter approaches and temperatures drop.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, flu activity typically rises in the fall and peaks between December and February, though it can last into spring.
The CDC recommends vaccination in early fall, generally September or October, in preparation for the seasonal wave.
As it gets colder outside, people spend more time indoors, kids are in school, and holiday get-togethers increase close contact… all perfect conditions for respiratory viruses to spread easily.
Why not plan an official “flu clinic” event at your office, or start offering the vaccine during appointments as the flu season approaches?
It’s simple to implement, is beneficial and convenient for patients, and it adds to your bottom line.
Most people will get vaccinated… why not in your office?
Allergy Season
Another predictable seasonal cycle happens in spring and fall, when allergy-related conditions are on the rise.
Tree pollen, grasses, weeds, ragweed… and more, are on the loose for much of the year.
For some, allergies are a mild inconvenience. But for others, they cause real health problems and lead to increased healthcare utilization.
The CDC estimates that pollen exposure contributes to billions of dollars in healthcare costs annually, driven by increased visits, medications, and complications such as asthma exacerbations.
For many primary care and specialty practices, these periods bring a noticeable uptick in visits for sinusitis, allergic rhinitis, and asthma-related issues.
Allergies happen predictably every season…
So why not integrate allergy-related services into your current service offering?
Chances are you already do that, but the question is… do your patients know about it?
Include all allergy-related services you offer in your marketing materials, and let your patients know that you can help them get through the next allergy season.
Summer Season
The summer season sees a different mix…
With kids out of school, people travel or spend time away on vacation. Naturally, families shift their focus away from healthcare unless a clinic visit becomes necessary.
While the season tends to be a bit slower and many practices see a dip in routine visits, often, there is still some seasonal demand for healthcare.
Summer visits may bring more heat-related injuries or dehydration to your office, in contrast to the illness-driven visits during winter.
At the same time, depending on the type of office and the services provided, there may be an increase in appointments for travel care or for the treatment of minor injuries associated with increased outdoor activity.
Many offices see an uptick in school and sports physicals during late summer as people prepare for kids to return to school.
For some practices, especially pediatrics and family medicine, this can create short bursts of activity within an otherwise slower season.
Make it a point to remind patients of all the services your office provides. Send emails, create a newsletter, send flyers, and make patient education materials available in your waiting room.
Unless people are aware of everything you offer in your practice, they can’t utilize it.
Mental Health
Seasons and patterns aren’t limited to physical health. Mental health also follows recognizable patterns.
Take SAD (Seasonal Affective Disorder) as an example.
The National Institute of Mental Health tells us that SAD typically begins in late fall or early winter and tends to improve in spring or summer.
Another example is the increase in depression and anxiety for some individuals around the major holidays.
Both patterns may lead to increased demand for mental health services around major holidays and during darker months, particularly in regions with shorter daylight hours.
Insurance Rules
Aside from weather, biology, and holidays, insurance can play a major role in healthcare seasonality.
January often brings a slowdown in appointments, as people face post-holiday bills and must meet insurance deductibles before visits and care are covered again.
Once deductibles have been met, healthcare demand often increases again toward the end of the year. For some practices, this pattern creates a surge in Q4 visits, followed by a slowdown in Q1.
Of course, this dynamic applies primarily to offices that accept Medicare and commercial insurance.
Seasonal Patterns: A Double-Edged Sword
For small practices with limited personnel, seasonal demand fluctuations can create operational challenges.
While seasonality cannot be eliminated, it can be managed and even used strategically to grow your practice.
Since every practice is different, it’s important to know and understand your own data.
Start by reviewing the number of patient visits, revenue, and payer mix over the past 12 to 24 months. From there, you should be able to create a simple seasonal calendar that shows you the expected highs and lows.
Next, focus on using slower periods intentionally.
Instead of passively allowing patient visits to decrease, plan to offer preventive and recall-based care during slow times.
Annual wellness visits, chronic disease follow-ups, medication reviews, and screenings can be scheduled proactively during quieter months.
Create seasonal campaigns, including flu vaccine reminders in early fall, allergy preparation in late winter, and sports physical reminders in early summer, to level patient visits and improve clinical outcomes.
Healthcare is inherently unpredictable, so remaining flexible is important. Remember that seasonal patterns are not set in stone and can shift due to factors such as pandemics, natural disasters, or changes in insurance policies.
Predictable… If You Plan For It
While shifts in healthcare demand may seem random, they are not.
Seasonal patterns in healthcare simply reflect a combination of human behavior, environmental conditions, and financial realities that are built into the system.
For small NP-owned practices, recognizing and working with these patterns can create opportunities to grow the business.
Instead of being blindsided by sudden volume swings, you can prepare for them, balance practice workloads, and stabilize or even increase your revenue.
While much of healthcare may feel unpredictable, seasonality is something you can actually plan and prepare for.
Are you tuned in to the seasonal patterns in your practice? Or do you see them now after reading the article?
Let us know in the comments below…
By Johanna Hofmann, MBA, MAc., EAMP; regular contributor to the NPBusiness blog.